49ers v. Rams Week 10 Review
On Monday Night Football, the 49ers won an important game against the now 7-3 L.A. Rams by dominating the time of possession and winning the turnover battle.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions for the second straight week, including a pick-six early in the game. The Rams needed big plays on offense to win, but Stafford did not connect on any deep (20+ yard) attempts. Their receivers also dropped at least five passes on Monday night, three of which were on third down.
The 49ers kept the Rams offense on the sideline by putting together two > 90 yards touchdown drives taking over 18 minutes off the clock in the first half alone. They held the ball for 39 minutes - nearly two-thirds of the game - by running it a season-high 44 times. Finally, missed tackles and penalties from the Rams allowed the 49ers to extend their drives and snap their losing streak at Levi’s Stadium.
Let’s break down the 49ers’ offense and defense.
Passing
49ers’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo did not do the heavy lifting on early downs. Instead, the offense ran the ball on 38 out of all 49 plays on first and second down.1 In the passing game, he showcased his quick release by holding onto the ball for just 2.3 seconds, had an average depth of target of 6 yards, and finished with the second-highest EPA/play from week 10.
The 49ers instead relied on their two best playmakers to create after the catch. For instance, here is the route chart of George Kittle, who was Garoppolo’s most targeted receiver. Almost half of Kittle’s production came after the catch on four of his five receptions.2 Deebo Samuel, targeted five times, averaged more than eleven yards after the catch including a 40-yard touchdown in the 4th quarter, 29 of which came after the catch.
But, Garoppolo did make the critical throws on late downs to extend scoring drives. He went 7-of-9 on third and fourth downs, with all seven of the completions earning the offense a new first down.3 His production was mainly boosted by his late down throws where he average a whopping 1.54 EPA/play.
Garoppolo was also one of the more aggressive QBs in week 10. Five of his nineteen pass attempts (22%) were thrown into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion.4 This is why Garoppolo also finished the game with the 4th highest completion % over expected in Week 10.
Rushing
Elijah Mitchell was the 49ers’ leading rusher this past week and led the way with 27 carries for 91 yards, all of which came after contact.5 Per his Next Gen Stats carry chart, Mitchell gained 5+ yards on only six rushing attempts while gaining between 0 and 5 yards on a vast majority of them. He was the only 49ers’ rusher who had a run of 10+ yards.
Given Kyle Shanahan’s commitment to run the ball, it was surprising how often the Rams defense used lighter boxes and played Cover-3. Instead of stacking the box and challenging Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them, the Rams used eight or more defenders in the box against Mitchell just 7% of the time. This ranks 22nd out of 27 among backs with at least ten rushing attempts from week 10.6 The Rams also played a lot more Cover-3, Cover-4 than league average, which further incentivized Kyle Shanahan to run the ball.7
L.A. Rams
Deebo Samuel also contributed to the ground game with five rushing attempts, 36 yards, and one touchdown. Samuel seems to be recovering well from his calf injury. “He looked really really quick [compared to his 2019 season]” said Oscar Aparicio as the 49ers continue to find ways to get Samuel involved in their offense.8 Against the Rams, he played over 70% of the snaps and scored a receiving and a rushing touchdown in the same game for the first time in his career.9
Although most people will remember the 49ers' rushing attack from this game, the actual story should be the passing offense carving the Rams defense on third down. With Mitchell running the ball, the 49ers’ rushing attack averaged just 3.37 yards per attempt, ranking 8th out of 11 among backs with at least 15 rush attempts. 49ers’ running game also did not create yards beyond what was expected on a play.10
Defense
The 49ers primarily played Cover-3 (15 instances), Cover-4 (10), and Cover-6 (10) against the Rams who, down two touchdowns early in the game, passed the ball over 80% of the time of early downs.11 The 49ers were particularly successful when playing quarters to prevent the Rams from throwing deep and making a comeback. Stafford also threw an interception early in the game when targeting OBJ deep against two defenders.
S.F. 49ers
After missing the Week 9 game against Arizona, Jimmy Ward's presence had a massive impact on the 49ers' pass defense. He had two interceptions, a pick-6, and allowed no catches to Rams receivers.12 Although Ward is primarily a free safety, the 49ers have used his versatility by having him play multiple positions, including against the Rams. Per PFF’s player grades, Ward has lined up either in the box (likely helping to stop the run) or as a slot cornerback on 40% of his total 2021 snaps.13
Despite having to pass-protect on a vast majority of snaps (44), the Rams offensive line only allowed nine pressures.14 Outside of Nick Bosa this season, no 49er pass rusher has been very productive. For instance, against the Rams, Bosa accounted for four of San Francisco's seven pressures off the edge. And although this season Bosa is 6th in total pressures with 27, no other 49er defender has more than ten total pressures. Bosa’s health will be critical to any success the 49ers will have the rest of this season because without him, this defense will be much worse.
https://rbsdm.com/stats/box_scores/
NFL Next Gen Stats.
Ibid, 1.
Ibid, 2.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-10-game-recap-san-fransisco-49ers-31-los-angeles-rams-10
Ibid, 2
http://thekneeldown.westus.cloudapp.azure.com/
Better Rivals: A San Francisco 49ers Podcast. Week 10 Reaction: 404 - Rams not found.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202111150sfo.htm#all_team_stats
https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-expected-rushing-yards
https://rbsdm.com/stats/pass_freq/
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-10-game-recap-san-fransisco-49ers-31-los-angeles-rams-10
https://www.pff.com/nfl/grades/position/s
Ibid, 13.